A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
